The Philippines is bracing for worsening dry conditions as the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) expects a very strong El Niño to peak toward the end of 2026 and persist until the first half of 2027.
In its November 4 advisory, PAGASA forecast below-normal to way-below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country this month, increasing the likelihood of drought and dry spells in several provinces.
The agency reported that five provinces were already experiencing meteorological drought in October, while 11 provinces were under dry spell conditions and 10 others were experiencing dry conditions.
PAGASA warned that the situation could deteriorate further by the end of November, with more provinces expected to experience meteorological drought or dry spells.
The weather bureau also projected above-average temperatures in most parts of the country, which could further strain water resources and agricultural production.
According to PAGASA, a very strong El Niño is currently prevailing in the tropical Pacific and is expected to continue through the first half of 2027.
El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It typically reduces rainfall in the Philippines, increasing the risk of prolonged dry periods and drought.
However, PAGASA clarified that the occurrence of El Niño does not rule out heavy rainfall, as tropical cyclones and other rain-bearing weather systems may still affect the country during the period.
In anticipation of prolonged below-normal rainfall, the agency urged government institutions, local communities, and other concerned sectors to strengthen preparedness and implement measures to minimize the impact of the phenomenon.
PAGASA emphasized the need for water conservation and more efficient management of available water supplies.
It also called on concerned sectors to adopt appropriate interventions and mitigation measures, particularly in areas vulnerable to drought and water shortages.
Water utilities, local government units, and agricultural communities were among those urged to prepare for potential disruptions in water availability and other drought-related impacts.
The agency reiterated that responsible water use and conservation will be crucial as the country faces the prospect of several months of reduced rainfall.
